Jeff Masters is one of the hurricane experts who writes for Wunderground, the popular internet weather site. In his latest blog entry he discusses the various models and reveals that two of the models predict Hurricane Dean will be a category 5 as it nears the Yucatan.

“The NOGAPS model has the southernmost solution, taking Dean into northern Belize/Southern Mexico. The GFDL takes Dean through the Yucatan Channel and northwestward, towards western Louisiana. The other models are in between, with both the HWRF and UKMET nudging their tracks more to the north, grazing the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. The GFDL and HWRF intensity forecasts both project Dean will be a Category 5 hurricane when it nears the Yucatan Peninsula.”

Posted by Steve

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The update at 8pm did not make good reading, no sign of a shift in trajectory and most of the major models are agreeing that Cancun will be affected in some way. Whether this means a direct hit, a near miss, or simply some heavy rain we wont know for a while, but my money is not on the last one. Anyone who has a trip planned to Cancun, or elsewhere in the Riviera Maya should seriously be rethinking their plans, and taking advantage of their trip insurance. You did buy trip insurance didnt you?

Tomorrow will be the first time Dean makes “landfall” over the tiny islands of Guadaloupe, St Lucia, Martinique and Dominica. These islands are unlikely to slow the hurricane at all, and all indications are of continuing strengthening. The various models agree that Dean will hit the Yucatan but the question is where. Will Cancun escape? Will Dean be as devastating as Wilma, or just a damp squib? No one knows for sure, but this time next week everyone will know.

Posted by Steve

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In October 2005 Hurricane Wilma struck Cancun with a ferocity that hadnt been seen for almost 20 years. For 36 hours the most intense hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic basin hovered over the centre of Cancun and dumped 24 inches of water, while winds of up to 140mph ravaged both downtown Cancun and the Hotel Zone.

Cancun took a good 6 months to recover. The forced downtime enabling many hotels, restaurants and bars to come back better than ever, as long awaited improvements were brought forward.

One of the most poignant Wilma videos I’ve seen is the one produced by Coco Bongo, and which featured for several months in their nightly shows. This one still brings me out in Goose bumps whenever I watch it.

Posted by Steve

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