Tropical Storm Gustav has left at least 22 people dead in the Dominican Republic and Haiti and continues on its path towards Cuba, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.  Gustav is expected to reach Jamaica tomorrow, then make a westward turn.  By early Saturday, some predict the tropical storm will have intensified into a strong category 3 hurricane as it hits the western coast of Cuba.

Media outlets have begun to speculate about the possibility of Gustav inflicting heavy damage on the Gulf Coast of the United States, particularly the state of Louisiana which is still recovering from Hurricane Katrina of 2005.  The governor of Louisiana has declared a state of emergency in anticipation of the storm and citizens are being advised to stock up on supplies and protect their homes.  FEMA has initiated precautionary actions and is coordinating with other government agencies in order to be prepared for Gustav and the National Guard is on active alert.

Cancun and the Riviera Maya still seem to be on the outside of the danger zone, but some models indicate a possible westward shift which would mean rain and wind on the weekend.  It is still too early to know for certain which path Gustav will take, storms are notoriously unpredictable and many factors can affect its journey.

posted by CancunCanuck

in Cancun

A little bit of hurricane humor courtesy of The Onion

Hurricane Bound For Texas Slowed By Large Land Mass To The South

Posted by Steve in Cancun.

Since the last report here predictions for Gustav’s course have not changed very much and as such the chance of Cancun being severely effected is diminishing as the cone of error becomes smaller. The hurricane, as predicted, has reduced in intensity to tropical storm level due to the influence of the mountains in Haiti . Now it is once again over open sea Gustav is expected to intensify keeping a westerly trajectory for a few days before turning northwards due to the steering effect of an existing  high pressure system centered near Florida.

5 Day Forecast for Gustav at 11am 27 August

It should be remembered that the cone of error for the course of a hurricane 5 days in advance is some 300 miles across and also that models are historically poor at predicting intensity that far ahead. In fact at the present time there is an equal chance of it being a Category 1, 2 or 3 storm in 5 days time. However, at the three days ahead stage which is of particular concern to Cancun and the Yucatan things are looking good and there is a great chance Cancun will be outside the path of this hurricane.
Posted by Steve in Cancun