Things looking good for CancunAugust 27, 2008 11:20 am Hurricane Gustav
Since the last report here predictions for Gustav’s course have not changed very much and as such the chance of Cancun being severely effected is diminishing as the cone of error becomes smaller. The hurricane, as predicted, has reduced in intensity to tropical storm level due to the influence of the mountains in Haiti . Now it is once again over open sea Gustav is expected to intensify keeping a westerly trajectory for a few days before turning northwards due to the steering effect of an existing high pressure system centered near Florida.
It should be remembered that the cone of error for the course of a hurricane 5 days in advance is some 300 miles across and also that models are historically poor at predicting intensity that far ahead. In fact at the present time there is an equal chance of it being a Category 1, 2 or 3 storm in 5 days time. However, at the three days ahead stage which is of particular concern to Cancun and the Yucatan things are looking good and there is a great chance Cancun will be outside the path of this hurricane.
Posted by Steve in Cancun