Things looking good for Cancun

August 27, 2008 11:20 am Steve Hurricane Gustav

Since the last report here predictions for Gustav’s course have not changed very much and as such the chance of Cancun being severely effected is diminishing as the cone of error becomes smaller. The hurricane, as predicted, has reduced in intensity to tropical storm level due to the influence of the mountains in Haiti . Now it is once again over open sea Gustav is expected to intensify keeping a westerly trajectory for a few days before turning northwards due to the steering effect of an existing  high pressure system centered near Florida.

 

5 Day Forecast for Gustav at 11am 27 August

5 Day Forecast for Gustav at 11am 27 August

It should be remembered that the cone of error for the course of a hurricane 5 days in advance is some 300 miles across and also that models are historically poor at predicting intensity that far ahead. In fact at the present time there is an equal chance of it being a Category 1, 2 or 3 storm in 5 days time. However, at the three days ahead stage which is of particular concern to Cancun and the Yucatan things are looking good and there is a great chance Cancun will be outside the path of this hurricane.
Posted by Steve in Cancun
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12 Responses

  1. Robert Henry Says:
    August 27th, 2008 at 12:33 pm

    I have a vacation planned for this Thursday til Monday, I’m not sure if I should go because I think the area will receive a lot of rain. I have insurance so it won’t cost me much to cancel. What do you think?

  2. Steve Says:
    August 27th, 2008 at 2:46 pm

    Right now the weather is perfect. I wouldn’t expect any rain until at least Saturday afternoon and even then there may not be any or very little. If it were me I would go ahead.

  3. Amy Says:
    August 27th, 2008 at 3:54 pm

    Hi Steve,

    I’m in the same predicament. My boyfriend and I are scheduled to arrive Saturday morning through next Friday the 5th. I have been eagerly waiting for weeks for this vacation and really don’t want rain. What do you think, especially since the hurricane is supposed to near the area that day. Thanks for your help.

  4. Steve in Toronto Canada Says:
    August 27th, 2008 at 5:52 pm

    Hey Steve in Cancun,

    Thanks so much for the update…I’m arriving in Cancun on Sat. through till Sat. …I’ll keep checking back to see if there are any more posts before I get there…Do you think there will be any residual effects that will linger or do you think once its passed over the weather will be ok again? – based on past hurricanes

    thanks again

  5. Steve Says:
    August 27th, 2008 at 7:48 pm

    Even after the infamous hurricane Wilma in 2005 the weather was back to normal within 48 hrs.

    This is not the kind of weather that lingers for days – the outer bands which is what we will likely see if anything will most probably bring scattered showers which diminish as the hurricane moves along it’s path northwards. My guess is by Monday things will be totally clear again, but we may not even experience anything.

  6. Junior Says:
    August 27th, 2008 at 9:24 pm

    i have a surprise trip to Cancun this friday the 29th of august and i dont know what to to because of this hurricane Gustav . I’m worried ill be there until monday if it doesn’t get cancelled

  7. Junior Says:
    August 27th, 2008 at 9:25 pm

    what should i do?

  8. RandyV Says:
    August 28th, 2008 at 9:34 am

    I also am leaving on Aug 29th. My mother is worried, but I’m not. if the storm begins to threaten, I’ll just head to Merida for a couple of days – I kind of wanted to go visit there anyway. Of course, having a rental car will help (keep it full of gas!)

  9. North Carolina Traveler Says:
    August 28th, 2008 at 11:05 am

    I’m planning on traveling to Cancun Sunday afternoon, and staying throught the week.
    Should I cancel??
    Help!

  10. Andres Alvarez Says:
    August 28th, 2008 at 12:12 pm

    I’ll be arriving in Cancun Sat @ 12:00PM coming back home on Tuesday.
    I checked weather.com and they show rain over cancum for the next 4 days. In case that haapens, Do you think It will be a good idea to drive south. I would like to spend a day on those beutifull beaches in Mexico

  11. Andy Says:
    August 29th, 2008 at 8:13 am

    I’m due to come out to cancun on the 16th september, if the hurricane does hit cancun what should i expect when i arrive

  12. Brian Says:
    September 3rd, 2008 at 1:34 pm

    I am having a plan to be in Cancun in Sep 12 – 19. Will it be a safe period to go there concerning the Gustav? Please suggest.