Gustav has been crawling along at a snails pace and spent most of yesterday traversing the length of Jamaica. As a result a second day of little forward progress ensured Cancun was not completely out of the woods, until just now.

3 Day Tracking Forecast 11am 29 August

The 11am CST (10am Cancun time) update shows Gustav is out to sea and speeding up once again which means the cone of probability has narrowed. Add in the fact that the storms predicted course has shifted Eastwards and the cone has moved eastwards too, so for the first time Cancun is not included within it. This means there is zero chance of Gustav hitting Cancun directly. It does not mean that there wont be any bad weather and we fully expect to see some mainly during Saturday evening and Sunday. Gustav is still a small hurricane as hurricanes go, and with his projected path shifting Eastward the potential effect on Cancun reduces the further Eastward he goes.

As for intensity, Gustav is expected to reach hurricane status today (I feel like I say that every post!) as he travels over some of the warmest water on the Planet and is likely to be a Category 2 hurricane as he passes the closest point to us sometime Saturday evening.

I suppose the blessing for us is that while Gustav crawled along tearing up Jamaica and Haiti, other weather systems that dictate it’s future path were moving and evolving and producing a different environment for Gustav to encounter than had been expected 48 hours ago. The die have rolled nicely for us….. this time.

Posted by Steve in Cancun.