BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007
…EYE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE DEAN JUST A FEW HOURS
FROM LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA…
AT 11 PM EDT…0300 UTC…THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING WESTWARD FROM CIUDAD DE CARMEN TO CHILITEPEC. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF
BELIZE…ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN…AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESSO
SOUTHWARD TO CHILITEPEC. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY
BEEN COMPLETED. PREPARATIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 11 PM EDT…THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FROM WEST OF CHILITEPEC WESTWARD TO
VERACRUZ MEXICO…AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM
VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
PROVINCES OF CUBA…PINAR DEL RIO…LA HABANA…AND ISLA DE LA
JUVENTUD.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM EDT…0300Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES…
245 KM…EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 310 MILES…500 KM…
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH…32 KM/HR…AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK…THE EYE OF DEAN WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DEAN WILL CROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND LIKELY REACH
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH…260 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DEAN CROSSES THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA…DEAN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES…95 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES…280 KM.
THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 914 MB…26.99 INCHES.
DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO…BELIZE…GUATEMALA…AND NORTHERN HONDURAS…WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION…18.4 N…86.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…160 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…914 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/ROBERTS
Posted by Dangers
Stay Calm, Stay Smart, Stay Safe…
(Jim)
